CESM1 LME sxtensions: Response to a Large Volcanic Eruption in a Warming World

–An ensemble of simulations of RCP8.5 scenario with a Mt. Tambora-like eruption occurring in either years 2015, 2050, or 2085CE.

In 1816, the coldest summer of the past two centuries was observed over northeastern North America and western Europe. This so-called Year Without a Summer (YWAS) has been widely attributed to the 1815 eruption of Indonesia’s Mt. Tambora and was concurrent with agricultural failures and famines worldwide. To understand the potential impacts of a similar future eruption, a thorough physical understanding of the YWAS is crucial. Climate model simulations of both the 1815 Tambora eruption and a hypothetical analogous future eruption are investigated using the NCAR CESM. Simulations have initial conditions taken at the end of 3 different CESM1 simulations run through the last millennium and the historical period (850-2006CE).  Simulations were initialized at the start of year 2006 and run to year 2100, using climate forcings from the RCP8.5 scenario with additional volcanic forcing equal to the eruption of Mt. Tambora applied starting in April of years 2015, 2050, or 2085. These are compared to simulations with the Mt. Tambora April 1815 eruption and control RCP8.5 simulations run with the same initial conditions but without the ‘future’ Mt. Tambora forcing.

Further details are provided here:

  • Fasullo, J.T., Tomas, R., Stevenson, S., B. Otto-Bliesner, E. Brady, E. Wahl, The amplifying influence of increased ocean stratification on a future year without a summer. Nat. Commun., 8, 1236 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-01302-z

We kindly ask that you reference this paper, and acknowledge NCAR’s PaleoclimateWG and computing resources from NCAR's CISL when presenting results based on these simulations in either oral or written form. 

Project Details

  • Simulations 

    • b.e11.BRCP85C5CN.f19_g16.LME.002.single_tambora.01a
    • b.e11.BRCP85C5CN.f19_g16.LME.002.single_tambora.02
    • b.e11.BRCP85C5CN.f19_g16.LME.002.single_tambora.03
    • b.e11.BRCP85C5CN.f19_g16.LME.003.single_tambora.01
    • b.e11.BRCP85C5CN.f19_g16.LME.003.single_tambora.02
    • b.e11.BRCP85C5CN.f19_g16.LME.003.single_tambora.03
    • b.e11.BRCP85C5CN.f19_g16.LME.008.single_tambora.01
    • b.e11.BRCP85C5CN.f19_g16.LME.008.single_tambora.02
    • b.e11.BRCP85C5CN.f19_g16.LME.008.single_tambora.03
    • b.e11.BRCP85C5CN.f19_g16.LME.009.single_tambora.01
    • b.e11.BRCP85C5CN.f19_g16.LME.009.single_tambora.02
    • b.e11.BRCP85C5CN.f19_g16.LME.009.single_tambora.03
  • Controls (ie, same IC & RCP8.5 forcing but wo/ Tambora eruption):
    • b.e11.BRCP85C5CN.f19_g16.LME.002
    • b.e11.BRCP85C5CN.f19_g16.LME.003
    • b.e11.BRCP85C5CN.f19_g16.LME.008
    • b.e11.BRCP85C5CN.f19_g16.LME.009
  • Years: 2006-2100CE
  • Background Climate Forcing Scenario: RCP8.5 
  • Model Version: CESM1.1
  • Compset: BRCP85C5CN
  • Volcanic forcing: /glade/campaign/cesm/development/palwg/inputdata/atm/cam/volc/
    • IVI2LoadingLatHeight1999-2100_L18_tombora_at_2015_c20150409.nc  (for *.01 cases)    
    • IVI2LoadingLatHeight1999-2100_L18_tombora_at_2050_c20150414.nc  (for *.02 cases)
    • IVI2LoadingLatHeight1999-2100_L18_tombora_at_2085_c20150414.nc  (for *.03 cases)
  • Resolution: 1.9x2.5_gx1v6 (finite volume 2o atm grid with nominal 1o ocean and sea ice grids)
  • Ensemble Size: four members per year of eruption
  • Time Frequencies Saved: Monthly

Data Acquisition

These simulations are available on the NWSC computing storage at /glade/campaign/cesm/collections/cesmLME/CESM-CAM5-LME.