Multi-Model Large Ensemble Archive

As part of its activities, the US CLIVAR Working Group on Large Ensembles has produced a centralized data archive of initial-condition Large Ensembles conducted with currently up to 7 CMIP5-class climate models. This archive contains gridded fields of key variables at both daily and monthly resolution, and is publicly accessible via the NCAR Climate Data Gateway or via NCAR’s supercomputer for users with a Cheyenne account: /glade/collections/cdg/data/CLIVAR_LE (note that the complete MPI-ESM Large Enesmble is available here)

The table below provides a summary of the salient characteristics of the models and simulations contained within the archive. Further discussion of the utility and applications of the archive is given in the reference below. Please direct questions about this archive to Dr. Flavio Lehner [ flehner@ucar.edu ] or Dr. Clara Deser [ cdeser@ucar.edu ].

We kindly ask that you acknowledge the US CLIVAR Working Group on Large Ensembles and reference Deser et al. (2020) when presenting results based on the Multi-Model Large Ensemble Archive in either oral or written form.

Deser, C., F. Lehner, K. B. Rodgers, T. Ault, T. L. Delworth, P. N. DiNezio, A. Fiore, C. Frankignoul, J. C. Fyfe, D. E. Horton, J. E. Kay, R. Knutti, N. S. Lovenduski, J. Marotzke, K. A. McKinnon, S. Minobe, J. Randerson, J. A. Screen, I. R. Simpson and M. Ting, 2020: Insights from Earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects. Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038/s41558-020-0731-2. [Article][Read-only]

The archive also includes an “Observational Large Ensemble” (Obs-LE) for temperature (land only), precipitation (land only), and sea level pressure (global), which can be used to sample alternative but non-observed historical climate trajectories. These data are based on a statistical model and described in McKinnon and Deser (2018). Further details and the code to reproduce the Obs-LE can be found on github. Please direct questions about the Obs-LE to Prof. Karen McKinnon [ kmckinnon@ucla.edu ].

Modeling Center Model Version Model Resolution (atm/ocn) Years Initialization Method Number of Members Forcing Reference
CCCma CanESM2 ~2.8°x2.8°/~1.4°x0.9° 1950-2100 Macro and Micro 50 historical, rcp85 Kirchmeier-Young et al. (2017)
CSIRO MK3.6 ~1.9°x1.9°/~1.9°x1.0° 1850-2100 Macro 30 historical, rcp85 Jeffrey et al. (2013)
GFDL ESM2M ~2.0°x2.5°/~1.0°x0.9° 1950-2100 Macro 30 historical, rcp85 Rodgers et al. (2015)
GFDL CM3 ~2.0°x2.5°/~1.0°x0.9° 1920-2100 Micro 20 historical, rcp85 Sun et al. (2018)
MPI MPI-ESM-LR ~1.9°x1.9°/nominal 1.5° 1850-2100 Macro 100 historical, rcp26, rcp45, rcp85 Maher et al. (2019)
NCAR CESM1-CAM5 ~1.3°x0.9°/nominal 1.0° 1920-2100 Micro 40 historical, rcp85 Kay et al. (2015)
NCAR CESM1-CAM5 ~1.3°x0.9°/nominal 1.0° 1920-2080 Micro 15 historical, rcp45 Sanderson et al. (2015)
EC-Earth Consortium EC-EARTH ~1.1°x1.1°/nominal 1.0° 1860-2100 Micro 16 historical, rcp85 Hazeleger et al. (2010)
Obs-LE v1.0 1°x1° 1921-2014 1000 McKinnon and Deser (2018)

Additional LE resources for historical and scenario simulations exist within CMIP6. These are listed below and are available from the standard CMIP server at ESGF. We focus on models that have at least 15 members in the historical period. This table is current as of November 2020. More simulations are expected to be added to CMIP6.

Modeling Center Model Version Model Resolution (atm/ocn) Years Initialization Method Forcing (Number of Members) Reference (*ESGF reference)
CCCma CanESM5 ~2.8°x2.8°/~1.4°x0.9° 1850-2100 Macro historical (50), ssp126 (50), ssp245 (50), ssp370 (50), ssp585 (50)
Note that the first 25 members have a different physics version (r[1..25]i1p1f1), leading to a different climate from the second 25 members (r[26..50]i1p2f1)
Swart et al. (2019)
CNRM CNRM-CM6-1 ~1.4°x1.4°/nominal 1° 1850-2100 Macro historical (30), ssp126 (6), ssp245 (10), ssp370 (6), ssp585 (6) *Voldoire (2018)
EC-Earth Consortium EC-Earth3 ~0.7°x0.7°/nominal 1° 1850-2100 Macro historical (23), ssp126 (7), ssp245 (5), ssp370 (7), ssp585 (7) *EC-Earth Consortium (2019)
SMHI EC-Earth3 ~0.7°x0.7°/nominal 1° 1970-2100 Macro historical (50), ssp119 (50), ssp434 (50), ssp534-over (50), ssp585 (50) *EC-Earth Consortium (2019)
NASA GISS-E2-1-G ~2°x2.5°/~1°x1.25° 1850-2100 Macro historical (40, comprised of 10 members with different physics and forcing combinations), ssp126 (2), ssp245 (15), ssp370 (2), ssp585 (2) *NASA GISS (2019)
NASA GISS-E2-1-H ~2°x2.5°/~1°x1.25° 1850-2014 Macro historical (23) *NASA GISS (2019)
IPSL IPSL-CM6A-LR ~2.5°x1.25°/~1.0°x0.5° 1850-2100 Macro historical (32), ssp119 (6), ssp126 (6), ssp245 (11), ssp370 (11), ssp585 (6) Boucher et al. (in review)
NCC NorCPM1 ~1.25°x1.9°/nominal 1° 1850-2029 Macro historical (30) *Bethke et al. (2019)
Met Office UKESM1-0-LL ~1.25°x1.9°/nominal 1° 1850-2029 Macro historical (17), ssp126 (5), ssp245 (5), ssp370 (5), ssp585 (5) *Tang et al. (2019)
MIROC MIROC6 ~1.4°x1.4°/nominal 1° 1850-2014 Macro historical (50), ssp126 (50), ssp245 (50), ssp370 (3), ssp585 (50) Tatebe et al. (2019)

Finally, modeling groups have started to produce multi-member ensembles for single-forcing simulations. Some follow the CMIP DAMIP protocol (with experiments such as 'hist-nat', 'hist-GHG', etc). Others use independent experimental setups, such as "everything-but-X" forcing, or idealized aerosol forcing scaling.

Modeling Center Model Version Model Resolution (atm/ocn) Years Initialization Method Forcing (Number of Members) Reference (*ESGF reference)
CCCma CanESM5 ~2.8°x2.8°/~1.4°x0.9° 1850-2014 Macro hist-nat (50), hist-GHG (50), hist-aer (30), hist-sol (50), hist-volc (50) ??
CNRM CNRM-CM6-1 ~1.4°x1.4°/nominal 1° 1850-2014 Macro hist-nat (10) *Voldoire (2018)
NASA GISS-E2-1-G ~2°x2.5°/~1°x1.25° 1850-2014 Macro hist-nat (20) *NASA GISS (2019)
IPSL IPSL-CM6A-LR ~2.5°x1.25°/~1.0°x0.5° 1850-2014 Macro hist-nat (10) Boucher et al. (in review)
MIROC MIROC6 ~1.4°x1.4°/nominal 1° 1850-2014 Macro hist-nat (50) Tatebe et al. (2019)
NCAR CESM1-CAM5 ~1.3°x0.9°/nominal 1.0° 1920-2080 Micro everything-but-GHG (20), everything-but-anthropogenic-aer (20), everything-but-biomass-burning (15; only until 2029), everything-but-LULUC (5; only until 2029) Deser et al. (2020, J. Climate)
NCAS HadGEM3-GC3.1 ~1.25°x1.9°/nominal 1.0° 1850-2014 Macro Aerosol scaling: 0.2× (5), 0.4× (5), 0.7× (5), 1.0× (5), 1.5× (5) Dittus et al. (2020, Geophys. Res. Lett.)