PAMIP Workshop 2021

Agenda

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Tuesday, March 30 2021

Time Presenter Title
08:00-09:00 Session 1: Polar amplification and Arctic-midlatitude connections
Chair: Clara Deser
08:00 Clara Deser Welcome and logistics
08:05 Hyo-Seok Park Opposing influences of ozone depleting substances and anthropogenic aerosols on Arctic warming over the last 65 years in NCAR CESM2
08:10 Lei Wang Polar Amplification in CESM is dominated by extra-polar forcing and resultant feedback
08:15 Dan Lunt Polar amplification in paleoclimates - can paleo observations constrain CMIP6 model simulations?
08:20 James Screen Observed statistical connections overestimate the causal effects of Arctic sea-ice changes on midlatitude winter climate
08:25 Hye-Jin Kim Subseasonal relationship between Arctic and Eurasian surface air temperature
08:30 Yungi Hong Warmer and less icy Arctic leading to more violent weather in mid-latitudes
08:35 Q & A session
08:45 Break
09:00-10:30 Session 2: Arctic-midlatitude linkages
Chair: Clara Deser
08:30 Gang Chen Evaluations of atmospheric variability in the PAMIP simulations
08:30 Evangelos Tyrlis Exploring remote and local drivers of blocking activity changes in PAMIP simulations
08:30 Yannick Peings Influence of internal variability: how to ensure results are robust?
08:30 Melissa Gervais Identifying changes in atmospheric variability due to Arctic sea ice loss with machine learning
08:30 Qinghua Ding Enhanced NH jet stream waviness induced by remote forcing from the tropics vs the Arctic
08:30 Mian Xu Impact of Barents-Kara-Sea sea ice reduction on the variation of East Asian trough in late winter
09:30 Q & A session
09:40 Break
10:00   Break-out groups ((all groups consider the same set of questions):
What are the open questions and how do we make progress on understanding:
• Mechanisms of polar amplification
• Atmospheric circulation response to polar amplification
• Causality in Arctic-midlatitude linkages and inferences from observations
Chairs: Gang Chen, Yannick Peings, Melissa Gervais, Qinghua Ding
10:30 Adjourn for the day

Wednesday, March 31 2021

Time Presenter Title
08:00-09:00 Session 3: Arctic-midlatitude linkages: sensitivities and observational constraints
Chair: James Screen
08:05 Yannick Peings Synthesis report of the breakout groups from the previous day
08:10 Gudrun Magnusdottir Warm Arctic, cold Siberia pattern: how deep is the projected Arctic warming?
08:15 Tido Semmler Resolution dependency of response to Arctic sea ice decline in PAMIP
08:20 Guillaume Gastineau Modulation of the winter atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss by the Pacific decadal oscillation
08:25 Ralf Jaiser Linkages between Arctic and mid-Latitude weather and climate: unraveling the impact of changing sea ice and sea surface temperatures
08:30 Svenya Chripko Dynamical and thermodynamical contributions to the mid-latitude atmospheric response to Arctic sea ice decline
08:30 Doug Smith Observationally constrained multi-model atmospheric response to future Arctic sea ice loss
08:35 Q & A session
08:45 Break
09:00-10:30 Session 4: Arctic-midlatitude linkages: role of the stratosphere
Chair: James Screen
08:30 Yu-Chiao Liang Investigating the stratospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss in PAMIP’s transient coupled experiments
08:30 Jiankai Zhang Impacts of Arctic stratospheric polar vortex on the East Asian Trough
08:30 Rosie Eade Role of the QBO in response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss
08:30 Amber Walsh Interaction between sea-ice loss, ENSO and QBO state
08:30 Lantao Sun Uncertainty in the winter atmospheric response to Arctic sea ice loss: the role of stratospheric internal variability
08:30 Michael Sigmond The role of the basic state, the stratospheric pathway and internal variability in the atmospheric response to sea ice loss
09:30 Q & A session
09:40 Break
10:00   Break-out groups ((all groups consider the same set of questions):
What are the open questions and how do we make progress on understanding:
• Factors influencing the response to Arctic sea ice loss
• The role of stratosphere-troposphere coupling
• Observational constraints
Chairs: Gudrun Magnusdottir, Tido Semmler, Rosie Eade, Michael Sigmond
10:30 Adjourn for the day

Thursday, April 1 2021

Time Presenter Title
08:00-08:55 Session 5: Influence of polar amplification on global climate: role of ocean-atmosphere coupling (I)
Chair: Doug Smith
08:05 Lantao Sun Synthesis report of the breakout groups from the previous day
08:10 Elisa Manzini Air-sea Interactions and the atmospheric response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss
08:15 Rym Msadek Multi-model assessment of the decadal and longer oceanic response to Arctic sea ice reduction
08:20 Wei Liu Global climate impacts of Arctic sea ice loss: the role of ocean circulation
08:25 Paul Kushner Are ocean-atmosphere responses to sea ice loss and greenhouse forcing separable?
08:30 Holly Ayres The coupled climate response to Antarctic sea ice loss
08:30 Stephanie Hay The relative roles of Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice loss in the climate response to greenhouse warming
08:35 Q & A session
08:45 Break
08:55-10:30 Session 6: Arctic-midlatitude linkages: role of ocean-atmosphere coupling (II)
Chair: Doug Smith
08:55 Tiffany Shaw The midlatitude response to polar sea ice loss and polar amplification: Idealized slab-ocean aquaplanet experiments with thermodynamic sea ice
09:00 Tien-Yiao Hsu Does Ekman coupling explain the damping of the ITCZ shift in fully coupled Arctic sea-ice loss experiments compared to the same forcing in a slabocean model set-up?
09:05 Mark England Artificial heating of the Arctic in sea ice loss simulations
09:10 Alexandre Audette Design and execution of the long-coupled simulations of PAMIP Tier 3
09:15 Q & A session
09:25   Break-out groups ((all groups consider the same set of questions):
What are the open questions and how do we make progress on understanding:
• Ocean’s response to Arctic and Antarctic sea ice loss
• Role of ocean-atmosphere coupling in the global climate response to polar sea ice loss
• “Tug of war” between GHG-induced tropical warming and polar warming
• Constraining the sea ice in the coupled PAMIP experiments
Chairs: Elisa Manzini, Rym Msadek, Paul Kushner, Mark England
09:45 Break
10:05 Rym Msadek Synthesis report of the breakout groups
10:10 Closing discussion and next steps: Identify 2-3 PAMIP research priorities and group papers (led by Clara Deser)
10:30 Workshop Adjourns