Assessing Responses and Impacts of Solar intervention on the Earth system with Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (ARISE-SAI)

Solar intervention using stratospheric aerosol injection is a proposed method of reducing global mean temperatures in order to avoid the worst consequences of future impacts. Assessing Responses and Impacts of Solar intervention on the Earth system with Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (ARISE-SAI) is a set of simulations carried out with the Community Earth System Model, version 2 with the WACCM, version 6 (CESM2(WACCM6)) that aims at simulating a plausible deployment of solar intervention of stratospheric aerosol injection to enable community assessment of responses of the Earth system. The first set of simulations introduce stratospheric aerosol injection at ~ 21 km in simulated year 2035, called ARISE-SAI-1.5, utilize the middle-of-the-road SSP2-4.5 emission scenario, and keep global mean surface air temperature near 1.5°C above the pre-industrial value. Sulfur dioxide injections in the ARISE-SAI-1.5 simulations are placed at four injection locations (15°S, 15°N, 30°S, 30°N) into one grid box at 180° longitude, and midpoint altitude of 21.6 km. The injection amount at each latitude is specified annually by a “controller” algorithm (MacMartin et al. 2014, Kravitz et al. 2017) that was used in the Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering Large Ensemble (GLENS) project. This strategy ensures that the global mean surface temperature (T0), north-south temperature gradient (T1), and equator-to-pole temperature gradient (T2) remain close to ~ 1.5°C above the pre-industrial value throughout the simulation. A second set of simulations, called ARISE-SAI-1.5-2045, utilizes a similar simulation set up but commences stratospheric aerosol injection in simulated year 2045. It should be noted that target threshold for these simulations was slightly lower at 1.37°C. Further information on the different target temperatures is included in Brody et al. (2025). The third set of simulations, introduces stratospheric aerosol injections in simulated year 2034, and targets a global mean surface air temperature near 1.0°C above the pre-industrial value, called ARISE-SAI-1.0.

ARISE-SAI-1.5 simulations include extensive output for the atmospheric, land, ocean and sea-ice model components. All model output for the simulations is in NetCDF format. All variables are in time-series format, with one variable per file. 3-dimensional atmospheric output is on the original 70 model levels. Output consists of standard monthly mean CMIP6 output for the atmospheric, land, ocean, and sea-ice models. In addition, higher-frequency (daily averaged, 3-hourly averaged, 3-hourly instantaneous, and 1-hourly mean) output is available for the atmospheric model. A listing of all output variables is available (output follows member 006 - 010 of the reference simulations described below).

Further details about the ARISE-SAI-1.5 simulations can be found in Richter et al. (2022).

Reference Simulations

There are 10 ensemble members of “reference” or SSP2-4.5 simulations (without intervention) with CESM2(WACCM6) that accompany the ARISE-SAI-1.5 simulations. A 5-member reference ensemble with CESM2(WACCM6) and the SSP2-4.5 scenario was carried out as part of the CMIP6 project for years 2015 - 2100. Surface temperature evolution and equilibrium sensitivity in these simulations are described in detail in Meehl et al. (2020). An additional 5-member ensemble of these simulations from years 2015 - 2069 was carried out with augmented high-frequency output for high-impact event analysis, as well as additional output for the land model to match the ARISE-SAI-1.5 simulations. A listing of all output variables is available.

Data Location

From NCAR's casper:

ARISE-SAI-1.5

/glade/campaign/collections/rda/data/d651059

CESM2(WACCM6) SSP-2.45

/glade/campaign/cesm/collections/CESM2-WACCM-SSP245
From the NSF NCAR Research Data Archive:

ARISE-SAI-1.5

https://doi.org/10.5065/9kcn-9y79

CESM2(WACCM6) SSP-2.45

https://doi.org/10.26024/0cs0-ev98

From Amazon/AWS Open Data Program:

ARISE-SAI-1.5

ARISE-SAI-1.5-2045

ARISE-SAI-1.0

https://registry.opendata.aws/ncar-cesm2-arise/

We are aware that there are duplicate time entries at the end of each year in ARISE-SAI-1.5-2045 (a.k.a. "Delayed") and ARISE-SAI-1.0 (a.k.a. "Lower").

The majority of data are stored under the "raw" directory. As noted above, there is a discrepancy between the naming convention and actual temperature target for ARISE-SAI-1.5-2045.

 

Extreme Precipitation and Temperature Indices:

ARISE-SAI-1.5 and CESM2(WACCM6) SSP-2.45

10.5281/ZENODO.7552583

Usage Notes

We anticipate community analysis of various aspects of the Earth system of the ARISE-SAI-1.5 simulations. There is no obligation to inform the project leads and Community Liaison about the analysis you are performing, but it would be helpful in order to coordinate analysis and avoid duplicate efforts. The ARISE-SAI Analysis Registry shows past and ongoing analysis on the ARISE-SAI dataset. Please add your name to it if you're analyzing these simulations.

How to Acknowledge

When presenting results based on ARISE-SAI-1.5, ARISE-SAI-1.0 or ARISE-SAI-1.5-2045 in either oral or written form, please cite the overview paper (Richter et al. 2022) and cite the data DOIs: https://doi.org/10.5065/9kcn-9y79 and https://doi.org/10.26024/0cs0-ev98

Project Leads

Community Liaisons

For questions about the dataset and collaboration requests please contact:

Acknowledgements

We acknowledge support from the PCWG liaison, David Bailey. This material is based upon work supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is a major facility sponsored by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement no. 1852977 and by SilverLining through its SCRI. The Community Earth System Model (CESM) project is supported primarily by the National Science Foundation. Computing and data storage resources, including the Cheyenne supercomputer (doi:10.5065/D6RX99HX), were provided by the Computational and Information Systems Laboratory (CISL) at NCAR.

References

  • MacMartin, D. G., Kravitz, B., Keith, D. W., & Jarvis, A. (2014). Dynamics of the coupled human-climate system resulting from closed-loop control of solar geoengineering. Climate Dynamics, 43, 243–258.
  • Kravitz, B., MacMartin, D. G., Mills, M. J., Richter, J. H., Tilmes, S., Lamarque, J.-F., ... Vitt, F. (2017). First simulations of designing stratospheric sulfate aerosol geoengineering to meet multiple simultaneous climate objectives. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 122, 12,616–12,634. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD026874
  • Meehl, G. A., Arblaster, J. M., Bates, S., Richter, J. H., Tebaldi, C., Gettelman, A., et al. (2020). Characteristics of future warmer base states in CESM2. Earth and Space Science, 7, e2020EA001296. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EA001296
  • Richter, J. H. , D. Visioni, D. G. MacMartin, D. A. Bailey, N. Rosenbloom, B. Dobbins, W. R. Lee, M. Tye, J. -F. Lamarque (2022): Assessing Responses and Impacts of Solar climate intervention on the Earth system with stratospheric aerosol injection (ARISE-SAI): protocol and initial results from the first simulations. Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8221–8243, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8221-2022
  • Brody, E., Visioni, D., Bednarz, E. M., Kravitz, B., MacMartin, D. G., Richter, J. H., & Tye, M. R. (2024). Kicking the Can Down the Road: Understanding the Effects of Delaying the Deployment of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection. Environmental Research: Climate, 3(3), 035011. https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad53f3Brody, E., Zhang, Y., MacMartin, D. G., Visioni, D., Kravitz, B., & Bednarz, E. M. (2025). Using optimization tools to explore stratospheric aerosol injection strategies. Earth System Dynamics, 16(4), 1325–1341. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1325-2025 
     

Publications Utilizing ARISE-SAI Datasets

  • Bednarz, E. M., Goddard, P. B., MacMartin, D. G., Visioni, D., Bailey, D., & Danabasoglu, G. (2025). Stratospheric aerosol injection could prevent future Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation decline, but injection location is key. Earth's Future, 13(8), e2025EF005919. doi.org/10.1029/2025EF005919
  • Bednarz, Ewa M., Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, Andy Jones, James M. Haywood, Jadwiga Richter, Douglas G. MacMartin, and Peter Braesicke. “Climate Response to Off-Equatorial Stratospheric Sulfur Injections in Three Earth System Models – Part 2: Stratospheric and Free-Tropospheric Response.” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 23 (2023): 663–85. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-663-2023.
  • Bednarz, Ewa M., Daniele Visioni, Jadwiga H. Richter, Amy H. Butler, and Douglas G. MacMartin. “Impact of the Latitude of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection on the Southern Annular Mode.” Geophysical Research Letters 49, no. 19 (October 16, 2022). https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100353.
  • Brody, E., Zhang, Y., MacMartin, D. G., Visioni, D., Kravitz, B., & Bednarz, E. M. (2025). Using optimization tools to explore stratospheric aerosol injection strategies. Earth System Dynamics, 16(4), 1325–1341. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1325-2025
  • Clark, B., Robock, A., Xia, L., Rabin, S. S., Guarin, J. R., Hoogenboom, G., & Jägermeyr, J. (2025). Maize yield changes under sulfate aerosol climate intervention using three global gridded crop models. Earth's Future, 13(2), e2024EF005269. doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005269
  • Cohen, S. L., Hurrell, J. W., & Lombardozzi, D. L. (2025). The impact of stratospheric aerosol injection: a regional case study. Frontiers in Climate, 7, 1582747. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2025.1582747
  • Connolly, C., Prewett, E., Barnes, E. A., & Hurrell, J. W. (2024). Quantifying the impact of internal variability on the CESM2 control algorithm for stratospheric aerosol injection. Earth's Future, 12(6), e2023EF004300. doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004300
  • Fasullo, J. T., & Richter, J. H. (2023). Scenario and Model Dependence of Strategic Solar Climate Intervention in CESM. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 23, 163–182. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-163-2023
  • Glade, I., Hurrell, J. W., Sun, L., & Rasmussen, K. L. (2023). Assessing the impact of stratospheric aerosol injection on US convective weather environments. Earth's Future, 11(12), e2023EF004041. doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004041
  • Glade, I., Hurrell, J. W., & Lombardozzi, D. L. (2025). Comparing future projections of warm spells and their characteristics under climate change and stratospheric aerosol injection in CESM2 and UKESM1. Frontiers in Climate, 7, 1581305. doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2025.1581305
  • Grant, N., Robock, A., Xia, L., Singh, J., & Clark, B. (2025). Impacts on Indian agriculture due to stratospheric aerosol intervention using agroclimatic indices. Earth's Future, 13(1), e2024EF005262. doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005262
  • Henry, M., Haywood, J., Jones, A., Dalvi, M., Wells, A., Visioni, D., Bednarz, E., MacMartin, D., Lee, W., & Tye, M. (2023). Comparison of UKESM1 and CESM2 Simulations Using the Same Multi-Target Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Strategy. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 23(20), 13369–13385. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13369-2023
  • Hueholt, D. M., Barnes, E. A., Hurrell, J. W., Richter, J. H., & Sun, L. (2023). Assessing outcomes in stratospheric aerosol injection scenarios shortly after deployment. Earth's Future, 11(5), e2023EF003488. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003488
  • Hueholt, D. M., Barnes, E. A., Hurrell, J. W., & Morrison, A. L. (2024). Speed of environmental change frames relative ecological risk in climate change and climate intervention scenarios. Nature Communications, 15(1), 3332. doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-47656-z
  • Hussain, A., Latif, M., Shoaib, M., & Khan, V. (2025). Projected malaria transmission risk under climate intervention in South Asia. Environmental Research Communications, 7(3), 035020. doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/adbeb9
  • Karami, K., Jacobi, C., & Kumar, A. (2025). The Morphology of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex Under Stratospheric Aerosol Intervention Scenarios. International Journal of Climatology, 45(8), e8838. doi.org/10.1002/joc.8838
  • Keys, P. W., Barnes, E. A., Diffenbaugh, N. S., Hurrell, J. W., & Bell, C. M. (2022). Potential for perceived failure of stratospheric aerosol injection deployment. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 119(40), e2210036119. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2210036119
  • Labe, Zachary M, Elizabeth A Barnes, and James W Hurrell. “Identifying the Regional Emergence of Climate Patterns in the ARISE-SAI-1.5 Simulations.” Environmental Research Letters 18, no. 4 (April 1, 2023): 044031. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acc81a.
  • MacMartin, D. G., D. Visioni, B. Kravitz, J.H. Richter, T. Felgenhauer, W. R. Lee, D. R. Morrow, E. A. Parson, and M. Sugiyama. “Scenarios for Modeling Solar Radiation Modification.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119, no. 33 (August 16, 2022): e2202230119. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2202230119.
  • Mamalakis, A., Barnes, E. A., & Hurrell, J. W. (2023). Using Explainable Artificial Intelligence to Quantify “Climate Distinguishability” After Stratospheric Aerosol Injection. Geophysical Research Letters, 50(20), e2023GL106137. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL106137
  • Mayer, K. J., Barnes, E. A., & Hurrell, J. W. (2024). Future seasonal surface temperature predictability with and without ARISE-stratospheric aerosol injection-1.5. Environmental Research: Climate, 3(4), 045026. doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad9b43
  • Morrison, A. L., Pathak, D., Barnes, E. A., & Hurrell, J. W. (2024). Projected changes to Arctic shipping routes after stratospheric aerosol deployment in the ARISE-SAI scenarios. Frontiers in Climate, 6, 1426679. doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1426679
  • Morrison, A. L., Barnes, E. A., & Hurrell, J. W. (2024). Stratospheric aerosol injection to stabilize Northern Hemisphere terrestrial permafrost under the ARISE-SAI-1.5 scenario. Earth’s Future, 12, e2023EF004151. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004151
  • Morrison, A. L., Barnes, E. A., & Hurrell, J. W. (2024). Natural Variability Can Mask Forced Permafrost Response to Stratospheric Aerosol Injection in the ARISE‐SAI‐1.5 Simulations. Earth’s Future, 12(6), e2023EF004191. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004191
  • Nkrumah, F., Quagraine, K. A., Leger Davy Quenum, G. M., Visioni, D., Koffi, H. A., & Browne Klutse, N. A. (2025). Assessing regional climate trends in West Africa under geoengineering: A multimodel comparison of UKESM1 and CESM2. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 130(13), e2024JD043117. doi.org/10.1029/2024JD043117
  • Nkrumah, F., Quenum, G. M. L. D., Quagraine, K. A., Tilmes, S., Klutse, N. A. B., Dommo, A., ... & Bediako, R. (2025). Climate response to stratospheric aerosol injection during the Harmattan season in West Africa. Environmental Research: Climate, 4(1), 015005. doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/adaa0c
  • Ojo, O. S., Emmanuel, I., Ogolo, E., & Adeyemi, B. (2024). Impact of stratospheric aerosol injection on photovoltaic energy potential over Nigeria. Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment, 18(1), 5. doi.org/10.1007/s44273-024-00028-x
  • Quagraine, K. A., Tye, M. R., Quagraine, K. T., Tilmes, S., Simpson, I. R., Nkrumah, F., Egbebiyi, T. S., Odoulami, R. C., & Klutse, N. A. B. (2025). Assessing the Impact of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection on Precipitation Extremes Across Africa using the ARISE-SAI1.5 datatset. Environmental Research: Climate, 4(3), 035006. https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/adee3c
  • Quagraine, K. T., O’Brien, T. A., Quagraine, K. A., Kravitz, B., & Tilmes, S. (2025). Assessing changes in atmospheric rivers under stratospheric aerosol injection using ARISE-SAI-1.5. Environmental Research: Climate. https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ade61a
  • Reboita, M. S., Ribeiro, J. G. M., Crespo, N. M., da Rocha, R. P., Odoulami, R. C., Sawadogo, W., & Moore, J. (2024). Response of the Southern Hemisphere extratropical cyclone climatology to climate intervention with stratospheric aerosol injection. Environmental Research: Climate, 3(3), 035006. doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad519e
  • Touma, Danielle, James W. Hurrell, Mari R. Tye, and Katherine Dagon. “The Impact of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection on Extreme Fire Weather Risk.” Earth’s Future 11, no. 6 (2023): e2023EF003626. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003626.
  • Visioni, Daniele, Ewa M. Bednarz, Walker R. Lee, Ben Kravitz, Andy Jones, Jim M. Haywood, and Douglas G. MacMartin. “Climate Response to Off-Equatorial Stratospheric Sulfur Injections in Three Earth System Models – Part 1: Experimental Protocols and Surface Changes.” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 23, no. 1 (January 16, 2023): 663–85. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-663-2023.