Data for the Large Ensemble Experiment is accessible through the
Earth System Grid website.
The forty members are individually listed on the Earth System Grid and are referred to as CCSM run b30.075-01 through CCSM run b30.075-40.
You must register with the Earth System Grid to download the data if you have not previously done so.
If you are interested in analyzing these runs, we kindly ask that you provide a short description of your proposed research
focus and your contact information and send it to Adam Phillips (asphilli at ucar.edu) so that other users can see what projects
are underway. Please notify Adam Phillips if any publications result from your work so that they can be posted here.
- Teng, H., G. Branstator, and G.A. Meehl, 2011: Predictability of the Atlantic Overturning Circulation and associated surface
patterns in two CCSM3 climate change ensemble experiments. J. Climate, in press.
- Polvani, L. M., M. Previdi, and C. Deser, 2011:
Large cancellation, due to ozone recovery, of future Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation trends.
Geophys. Res. Lett., in press. [Article (.pdf)]
- Deser, C., A. S. Phillips, V. Bourdette, and H. Teng, 2011: Uncertainty in climate change projections:
The role of internal variability. Climate Dyn., DOI 10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x.
- Meehl, G. A., A. Hu, and C. Tebaldi, 2010: Decadal Prediction in the Pacific Region.
J. Climate, 23, pp. 2959-2973, DOI: 10.1175/2010JCLI3296.1.
- Teng, H. and G. Branstator, 2010: Initial value predictability in prominent modes of north Pacific
subsurface temperature in a coupled GCM. Climate Dyn., 36, pp. 1813-1834.
- Branstator, G. and H. Teng, 2010: Two limits of initial-value decadal predictability in a CGCM.
J. Climate, 23, pp. 6292-6311.
Ongoing Project Descriptions
|Arctic Sea Ice and Atmospheric Circulation
||Clara Deser (cdeser at ucar.edu), Marika Holland (mholland at ucar.edu),
and Masha Tsikernik (masha at ucar.edu)|
We are interested in analyzing Arctic sea ice variability and the role of the
overlying atmospheric circulation in the Large Ensemble. In particular, we wish
to address whether the rate of Arctic sea ice loss in the various ensemble members
depends on the trend in the NAO.
|Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
||Gokhan Danabasoglu (gokhan at ucar.edu), Joe Tribbia (tribbia at ucar.edu),
Jim Hurrell (jhurrell at ucar.edu), and Adam Phillips (asphilli at ucar.edu)|
We will be studying the mechanism(s), predictability, and climate impacts of
the simulated decadal variability in the Atlantic basin as depicted in the Atlantic
Meridional Overturning Circulation.
|The Role of Forced and Natural Variability in Future Arctic Sea Ice Loss
||Marika Holland (mholland at ucar.edu), Cecilia Bitz (bitz at atmos.washington.edu),
Bruno Tremblay (bruno.tremblay at mcgill.ca), David Bailey (dbailey at ucar.edu),
and Eric DeWeaver (deweaver at aos.wisc.edu)|
We are interested in analyzing the role of forced versus natural variability in future abrupt
Arctic summer sea ice loss. Additionally, we are interested in how natural variations in Arctic
sea ice are modified with a thinning sea ice cover.
|Emerging Signal at Various Spatial Scales
||Julie Arblaster (jma at ucar.edu), David Karoly
(dkaroly at unimelb.edu.au), Jerry Meehl (meehl at ucar.edu)|
Of interest in this study is the statistical point at which
the forced signal exceeds the noise due to the internal
variability of the system. We will analyse the effect that
ensemble size and the use of various measures of internal
variability have on the determination of a significant
change, at the global, regional and gridpoint level.
|The Importance of Increasing Wind Stress on the Southern Ocean Surface in Altering
Mid-Depth Ocean Heat Uptake
||Clark Kirkman IV (ckirkman at u.washington.edu), Cecilia Bitz (bitz at u.washington.edu)|
We are interested in determining the importance of increasing wind stress on the surface
Southern Ocean (from GHG and ozone changes) in altering mid-depth ocean heat uptake.
Since possible mechanisms include interactions with sea ice, we would like to understand
the variability of any such effect. Thus, we plan to conduct a small ensemble of
sensitivity experiments with imposed Southern Ocean wind anomalies branching from the
|Pacific Decadal Oscillation
||Haiyan Teng (hteng at ucar.edu) and Grant Branstator (branst at ucar.edu)|
We'll be studying the mechanism(s), predictability and climate impacts of
the Pacific decadal oscillation in the large ensemble.
|Determining what Mechanisms drive Southwestern U.S. Drought
||Celine Bonfils (bonfils2 at llnl.gov), Tom Phillips (phillips14 at llnl.gov), and Peter Caldwell (caldwell19 at llnl.gov)|
We are interested in mechanisms that may intensify future Southwest U.S. mega-droughts. In particular, we
will study the role the variability in drought-conducive SSTs and test the role of new subsurface parameterizations.