CESM Related Projects: EaSM
EaSM
Multiscale Modeling of Aerosol Indirect Effects on Decadal Timescale, Sungsu Park
Aerosol effects on clouds operate at spatial scales of short-lived cloud updrafts (typically 100 m-100 km), yet exert a global effect on climate over multiple decades. The multiscale nature of these indirect effects on the planetary energy balance presents particular challenges to climate modeling, which has led to large uncertainties in estimates of indirect effects. [summary]
An Informed Guide to Climate Data Sets in the ESM, Clara Deser
We propose to establish and maintain a web-based informed guide to selected climate data sets of
relevance to the evaluation of Earth System Models (ESMs). The proposed work has two main objectives related to ESM evaluation and these are identified as high priority needs of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP): 1) to evaluate and assess selected climate datasets, and 2) to provide "expert-user" guidance and advice on the utility and limitations of selected climate datasets. [summary] [climate data guide]
Modeling of ecosystem impacts in Arctic, Marika Holland
The proposed project will provide a high-latitude regional focus for several of the primary objectives of the Decadal and Regional Climate Prediction program: an evaluation of regional variability and extreme events as simulated by a state-of-the-art global system model (the Community Earth System Model, CESM1); quantification of the impacts of climate variability on the marine ecosystem, the terrestrial landscape and sea ice in the Arctic; the ability of the Community Earth System Model to capture ecosystem-relevant variability over seasonal to decadal timescales; and the use of ensembles of CESM simulations to quantify the uncertainties inherent in decadal-scale predictions for the Arctic. A key part of the project will be an assessment of CESMsimulated seasonal to multidecadal modes of variability and extreme events (as well as their inter-relationships) in high latitudes. [summary]
Improved Cold Region Hydrology Process, David Lawrence
The Arctic is currently experiencing rapid environmental change. Numerous studies have shown clear
evidence of decadal-scale change that is pervasive throughout the terrestrial Arctic system including widespread permafrost thaw and associated thermokarst initiation, changes in lake distribution, shifts in vegetation community composition, as well as changes in a host of other ecosystem processes. Threshold and non-linear responses associated with phase change between ice and water leave the Arctic particularly susceptible to swift and disruptive change. Realization of the scope of change, in conjunction with its pace, has spawned concern that the massive and, until recently, effectively dormant soil carbon pools stored in permafrost-affected and peatland soils may be more vulnerable than previously thought. The [summary]
Decadal predictability of extreme events: Impact of a model error representation and numerical resolution, Judith Berner
We propose to implement a stochastic backscatter scheme into the Community Atmosphere
Model and explore how to improve the internal variability and, in particular, the prediction of extreme events on decadal and regional scales. Model integrations with and without such a scheme would be conducted and extreme value statistics be used to determine the impact of the scheme onto the occurrence of extreme events. For comparison, the same statistic would be computed using the the ERA40, the ERA-Interim analysis and/or the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis as best proxy for multi-decadal observations. [summary]
Assessing and Improving Scale Dependence, Gordon Bonan
Earth system models include aspects of the terrestrial carbon cycle with emphasis on continental to global carbon stocks and fluxes. Yet reliable information on ecosystem services at local to regional scales, as well as metrics of community structure and dynamics, is necessary to inform climate change impact, mitigation, and adaptation policies. [summary]
Topographic Control of the Gulf Stream, Gokhan Danabasoglu
We propose to address the problem of Topographic Control of the Gulf Stream with particular
application to its separation. We build on the hypothesis that boundaries exert fundamental controls on the ocean circulation in general, and the Gulf Stream in particular, that are poorly represented or absent from current climate models. We focus on subinertial excitation of inertia-gravity waves and activation of the submesoscale by boundary processes, with a view towards their potential vorticity and lateral stress implications. We hypothesize these processes dominate Gulf Stream separation and downstream development. This is a critical aspect of ocean circulation that all current models struggle with, regardless of resolution. [summary]
Modeling Ocean Turbulence and Biogeo Cycles, William Large
This proposal focusses on decadal predictability of the ocean component of the climate system, both in its physical and biogeochemical aspects. It attempts to advance understanding of the coupled physical, chemical and biological processes in the ocean that respond to, and feedback on, the global climate. [summary]
Improved Regional and Decadal Predictions, Keith Lindsay
The primary goal of this proposal is to improve the decadal and regional projections of the carbon
cycle in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). There currently is substantial spread in the predictions of atmospheric carbon among the full complexity climate-carbon models, even with the same anthropogenic forcings. [summary]
Quantifying the Uncertainties of Aerosol Indirect, Sungsu Park
The aerosol indirect effect (AIE) remains one of the largest uncertainties in global climate
models. The goal of this proposed project is to systematically quantify the major uncertainties of aerosol indirect effect due to treatment of small-scale cloud dynamics (vertical velocity) which drives aerosol activation, cloud microphysics parameterizations, cloud macrophysics, weatherscale dynamics and thermodynamics feedbacks in response to anthropogenic aerosol perturbations. The NCAR Community Atmospheric Model version 5 (CAM5) will be used in this project, which includes advanced physics for aerosol treatment, aerosol-cloud interactions, cloud microphysics and macrophysics, and moist turbulence. [summary]
Climate-to-Humans: A Study of Urbanized Coastal Environments, Julio Bacmeister
We propose to develop a unified framework for studying global change in the Earth System allowing for scale interactions (up/down-scaling) and explicitly modeled dynamic feedbacks between the sub-components. We will build an Earth System Model (EaSM) that couples multi-scale ocean, atmosphere, watershed, biogeochemistry and human system models. The projected variability of the coupled environmental and human systems, represented with bioeconomic and social network models, will be used to study management and other socio-economic decisions affecting future sustainable practices and the long-term evolution of the Earth System. [summary]
Simulations of Anthropogenic Climate Change, Andrew Gettelman
The primary goal of the proposed research is to conduct and analyze simulations of anthropogenic
climate change based on a version of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) in which the atmosphere and land-surface models are based on "super-parameterization." We will develop and test a community version of this new model configuration to be called the SP-CESM. The effects of moist convection, stratiform cloudiness, radiative transfer, boundary-layer processes, and the land surface will be computed by embedding a cloud-resolving model (CRM) in each grid column of the SP-CESM. [summary]
Chemistry and Climate over Asia, Mary Barth
Asia is one of the most highly populated and economically dynamic regions in the world, with
much of the population located in growing mega-cities. It is a region with significant emissions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and other pollutants, which pose high health risks to urban populations. Emissions of these aerosols and gases increased drastically over the last decade due to economic growth and urbanization and are expected to rise further in the near future. As such, the continent plays a role in influencing climate change via its effluent of aerosols and gaseous pollutants. Asia is also susceptible to adverse climate change through interactions between aerosols and clouds, which potentially can have serious implications for freshwater resources. [summary]
Developing a Next-Generation Approach to Regional Climate Prediction at High Resolution, Greg Holland
The need for regional climate predictions at high resolution and decadal time scales is widely recognized; industry, local government and society increasingly require sufficient understanding and warning to enable proper planning and adaptation to mitigate future costs and disruptions arising from climate variability and change. This is the basis behind a major Prediction Across Scales (PAS) initiative involving NCAR and a number of collaborators. The overarching goals are to bridge the weather and climate divide, to enable predictions of regional climate and high-impact weather statistics on decadal time scales, and to provide improved decision-support tools for society. [summary]
CESM Project
The Community Earth System Model (CESM) is a fully-coupled, global climate model that provides state-of-the-art computer simulations of the Earth's past, present, and future climate states.
CESM is sponsored by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). Administration of the CESM is maintained by the Climate and Global Dynamics Division (CGD) at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).